Complicated but Explained: How Europe’s World Cup Play-Offs will be Determined
As Europe enters the final stretch of its qualifying campaign for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, attention is now firmly locked on Thursday’s highly anticipated play-off draw. With four coveted places at the finals still to be claimed, the stakes for Italy, Czech Republic, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, possibly Scotland, and others could not be higher.
Sixteen teams will enter the play-offs, but only four will qualify for the World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. And with the draw pots determined by world rankings and Nations League performance, the last round of group matches on Monday and Tuesday carries massive implications for who gets home advantage in the all-important semi-finals.
The Play-Off Format
The structure is simple but somewhat complicated. Four paths, each containing four teams. One-legged semi-finals, with seeded teams playing at home with one-legged finals, with home advantage determined by Thursday’s draw
One team per path will reach the World Cup.
The pots will be drawn as:
Pot 1 vs Pot 4
Pot 2 vs Pot 3
Being in Pot 1 or Pot 2 is the priority that guarantees a home semi-final. But the difference between the pots is not as stark as it appears as Pot 4 has some higher-ranked nations than Pot 3, while Pot 3 teams are often in superior recent form.
Who Is Already Guaranteed a Spot?
Eight countries have secured their place in the play-offs: Albania, Czech Republic, Italy, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Romania, Sweden, and Ukraine.
More teams are virtually confirmed:
Kosovo and Turkey, unless they somehow secure six-goal wins over Switzerland and Spain respectively.
Poland, unless the Netherlands collapse dramatically against Lithuania.
Wales and North Macedonia, with the likelihood that both will eventually enter.
Secure seedings so far
Pot 1: Italy
Pot 3: Albania (plus likely Kosovo unless they win by six or more)
Pot 4: Romania, Sweden, Northern Ireland
Turkey and Ukraine are on course to fill Pot 1.
What Thursday’s Draw Means
The play-off draw will script the final act of Europe’s qualifying drama.
Several compelling storylines are forming: Italy, forced into yet another high-pressure knockout route, Albania and Romania, ready to challenge Europe’s hierarchy.
Four tickets remain. Four paths await. One game could define everything.